Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
